The ambitious peace initiative brokered by
Donald Trump in the conflict between Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu’s government
in Gaza Strip is showing signs of serious instability. What began as a landmark
diplomatic achievement is now under threat of collapse, as Israeli objections,
military actions and ambiguous governance plans cast doubt on its durability.
Recent events have intensified fears that the deal may unravel, underscoring
just how fragile the truce really is.
Background:
The Deal and What Was Agreed
In late September 2025, the Trump
administration unveiled a 20-point plan aimed at ending the war in Gaza, which
includes the release of Israeli hostages, a staged withdrawal of Israeli
forces, the disarmament of Hamas and the creation of a new governance and
security apparatus in Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas signed off on the first
phase of the deal in early October, signalling the beginning of the process. On paper, it seemed to mark a major
breakthrough in one of the world’s most intractable conflicts.
Why the
Deal Now Faces Collapse
Despite the initial agreement, several serious
obstacles have emerged that risk derailing the peace plan.
1. Israeli Government Resistance and Internal
Friction
Netanyahu’s government includes hard-line ministers who oppose key elements of
the deal especially the notion of Israeli forces
pulling back and Hamas being excluded from governance. Israeli Defence Minister
Israel Katz, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister
Itamar Ben‑Gvir have publicly criticised aspects of the accord. Such objections make implementation extremely
difficult.
2. Ongoing Violence and Cease-fire Violations
Even after an initial cease-fire, large‐scale violence has continued. For
example, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed more than 100 Palestinians in
overnight strikes during one incident, jeopardising the agreement and putting
the rim of the truce at risk. The United States has stepped in to try to
mediate and reduce escalation, but the underlying triggers remain.
3. Governance and Security Gaps
Key details remain unresolved: who will govern Gaza, how will a new Palestinian
police force be trained and implemented, and what role (if any) representatives
from countries like Turkey will play in the stabilization force? Israel flatly
rejects Turkey’s involvement. Without consensus on these steps, the plan’s
foundation is shaky.
4. U.S. Administration’s Elevation of
Implementation Risks
According to reports, U.S. officials feel that the next 30 days are critical
and are assuming tighter oversight of the deal’s execution. At the same time,
the longer hostilities and tensions continue, the more likely things are to
unravel. The combination of ambitious goals and fragile
trust between parties makes collapse a real possibility.
What’s at
Stake if the Deal Fails
Should the plan collapse, the consequences
could include a rapid return to full-scale fighting, a humanitarian catastrophe
in Gaza, and a serious blow to regional diplomacy and U.S. credibility. Israel
could resume aggressive operations, Hamas may regain bargaining power, and the
region’s stability could unravel once more. The current peace deal represented
one of the most high-profile foreign-policy gambles of the Trump
administration; failure would taint its legacy and leave the war unresolved
Outlook:
Can It Still Be Saved?
There remains a narrow window of opportunity
for the deal to succeed. Slowing down implementation to ensure each step is
solid may help, as one senior U.S. official suggested: “It is better to move
slow and get it right because we are not gonna have a second chance.” At the
same time, realpolitik dictates that the Israeli side must be reassured of
their security, Hamas must see tangible incentives and the international
community must provide a credible governance and reconstruction plan. If these
align, the deal might yet hold but the hurdles are steep and time is short.
Conclusion
The peace plan championed by Donald Trump for
Gaza had high ambitions and global attention, but its current trajectory is
alarmingly unstable. With Israeli resistance, violence on the ground,
unresolved governance questions and a ticking clock, the risk of collapse is
real. Whether this fragile accord can be salvaged will depend on political
will, diplomatic finesse and on-the-ground execution failure
may mean a return to conflict and missed chances for peace.
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