In the West African nation of Mali, a
disturbing shift is underway. The affiliate of Al‑Qaeda known as Jama’at Nusrat
al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM) is rapidly extending its reach into large swaths
of the country and edging closer than ever to the capital, Bamako. Security
analysts warn that if Bamako falls under JNIM’s control, Mali could become the
first country in Al-Qaeda’s history to be governed by a terror network.
How JNIM Is
Gaining Ground
Rather than simply launching large-scale
offensives, JNIM’s strategy has been a methodical one: cut off supply routes,
choke the government’s reach, and embed itself in local governance. In recent
months it has established checkpoints, collected taxes, and acted as a de-facto
authority in rural areas of Mali. Fuel and food convoys have been blocked,
especially those servicing Bamako, creating shortages and economic collapse.
Military bases in remote regions have been
attacked and captured, highlighting the government’s lack of control. In June
2025, militants launched major assaults near Mali’s northern base in
Boulikessi, leaving the army reeling.
The
Weakening Government in Mali
Mali’s government has been unstable for years.
A military junta that seized power through coups in 2020 and 2021 now struggles
to maintain basic governance. Its isolation from Western allies and dependence
on foreign mercenaries have weakened its capacity to resolve the crisis.
Analysts note that with army morale low and resources stretched thin, the state
is losing its hold.
With JNIM tightening the economic noose fuel
blockades, food-supply disruptions, and shortages hitting Bamako hard the
government’s ability to deliver services is collapsing. Schools have been
suspended and hospitals are running low on supplies.
The Human
Cost and Humanitarian Crisis
The toll on civilians is staggering. Over 8
million Malians now need urgent humanitarian aid; thousands have been killed in
extremist-related violence this year alone.
In the capital and beyond, people wait for
hours at fuel stations. Markets are emptying, blackouts are common, and many
families are fleeing the violence-ridden north and central regions. The UN
warns of impending famine if the blockade and collapse persist.
Why This
Could Mark a Turning Point for Al-Qaeda
Historically, Al-Qaeda has supported
insurgencies and terror networks but never directly governed an entire country.
If JNIM captures Bamako and establishes a regime, it would become a
precedent-setting event in modern terrorism. For Al-Qaeda, that means:
territorial control, state-like resources, and global legitimacy. Experts
suggest it could embolden jihadist operations across the Sahel, North Africa
and beyond.
Regional
and Global Implications
A jihadist-led Mali would not just destabilize
one country it could reshape West Africa’s security landscape. Neighboring
countries like Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad already face similar insurgencies.
If JNIM governs Mali, its model could spread. The global counter-terrorism
community would face a major setback.
What Could
Still Stop It
Although JNIM is gaining ground, the battle
isn’t over. The Malian army still formally controls Bamako for now.
International support either from neighbouring African states or global powers could
provide reinforcements. Also, governments might seek to negotiate local truces
or power-sharing deals with JNIM to avoid collapse. But time is short. Analysts
warn that without swift action, the capital could face direct assault before
year-end.
Why the
Strategy Works for JNIM
JNIM’s approach differs from right-away blitz
warfare. Instead, they exploit weak governance, local grievances, ethnic
tensions and economic desperation. By acting as service provider offering
justice, governance, taxes they win hearts and minds in neglected rural zones.
Researchers call this ‘transplantation’ moving into an environment, embedding,
exploiting local networks and then expanding.
Their superior arms, recruitment, and ability
to co-opt illicit economies smuggling, mining, trafficking give them advantage.
With state armies overstretched and lacking internal legitimacy, JNIM fills the
vacuum.
What
Happens If Bamako Falls?
Should Bamako fall under JNIM control, Mali
would devolve into a jihadist-ruled state. A functioning regime might impose
strict Islamist law, ban dissent, recruit fighters internationally, and host
global terror networks. Control of infrastructure, borders, trade routes and
resources could provide a platform for large-scale operations. The ripple
effects would challenge international security, trigger mass displacement and
collapse in neighbouring states. The mood among analysts is grim: this scenario
is no longer hypothetical.
The Human
Element: Voices from Mali
In Bamako, ordinary people are increasingly
feeling the squeeze. Long lines at fuel stations, closed shops, no electricity
at times what used to be taken for granted is now rare. One native said, “The
emergency is here, the situation is very, very critical.”
Outside the capital, families flee. Parents
worry about children having no access to schools. Health clinics shut down or
lack medicine. The economic collapse is visible: businesses closing, prices
surging, despair rising. What began as a security issue has become a
humanitarian catastrophe.
What Must
Be Done?
To avert the worst:
Regional and international partners must
coordinate reinforcements, intelligence and resources to bolster Mali’s
government and security forces.
Aid must be scaled up immediately to prevent
famine and humanitarian collapse. Access must be guaranteed even in
insurgent-controlled zones.
Governance reforms are critical: restoring
state legitimacy, rebuilding services, and engaging local communities to deny
JNIM their foothold.
Negotiations might need to be part of
strategy: while non-ideal, power-sharing or cease-fires may buy time.
Long-term strategy must address root causes:
weak institutions, economic deprivation, ethnic divides and illicit economies
that fuel insurgency.
Without these steps, Mali could cross into a
zone where one of the world’s most dangerous terror networks governs not under
siege, but in command.
Conclusion
The rise of JNIM in Mali is more than another
insurgency it could be the beginning of a new kind of terror-state. With
Al-Qaeda’s affiliate steadily controlling territory, starving the capital of
supplies, and weakening the government’s grip, the scenario of a jihadist-ruled
Mali is no longer a distant worry it is a looming possibility. For the people
of Mali and the world, the stakes could not be higher. The next few months may
decide whether the country falls or is rescued from the brink.
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