A long-simmering territorial dispute between Thailand and
Cambodia has erupted into deadly violence, claiming at least 32 lives and
displacing nearly 160,000 people across both nations. The recent escalation
began on Thursday following a landmine explosion that injured five Thai
soldiers, prompting airstrikes, artillery shelling, and cross-border
retaliation, drawing fears of a prolonged regional conflict in Southeast Asia.
On Saturday, Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence
spokesperson, Maly Socheata, confirmed that 12 additional people—seven
civilians and five soldiers—had been killed in ongoing fighting. This brought
Cambodia’s total to 13 deaths, including a civilian killed Thursday when a Thai
rocket struck a Buddhist pagoda. Over 70 Cambodians, both soldiers and
civilians, have been injured.
Thailand has reported 19 fatalities, including 13
civilians—among them an 8-year-old boy—and six soldiers. An additional 59 Thais
have been injured in Cambodian strikes, including 29 military personnel.
Officials from both nations continue to trade blame over who initiated the
latest wave of hostilities.
The flashpoint of this conflict is a disputed section of the
border, originally mapped during France’s colonial rule over Cambodia in the
early 20th century. The border stretches over 817 kilometers (508 miles) and
has been a source of repeated clashes for decades, often flaring due to rising
nationalism and political instability on either side.
Approximately 20,000 Cambodians have been evacuated from the
border region in Preah Vihear province, while Thailand has evacuated over
138,000 people and opened 300 emergency centers. Martial law has been imposed
in eight Thai border districts, signaling the seriousness of the crisis.
Thursday’s violence followed a series of escalating
diplomatic and economic retaliations since May, when a Cambodian soldier was
killed in a skirmish. In recent weeks, both countries imposed bans and cut
ties: Thailand restricted border trade, Cambodia blocked Thai media broadcasts
and internet bandwidth, and both nations expelled each other's ambassadors.
Tensions escalated to a breaking point after Thai troops were injured by what
they claim were freshly planted landmines—an allegation Cambodia has firmly
denied.
Cambodia’s leadership transition may be a factor in the
flare-up. After nearly four decades in power, strongman Hun Sen handed the
reins to his son Hun Manet in 2023. However, Hun Sen remains a powerful figure
as president of the Senate. Some analysts suggest that the border crisis could
be a calculated effort to bolster Hun Manet’s nationalist credentials and
legitimize his authority in the eyes of a skeptical public. “He governs in his
father’s shadow and lacks an independent power base,” said Matt Wheeler of the
International Crisis Group.
Thailand, too, is embroiled in political instability. Prime
Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former leader Thaksin Shinawatra,
has been suspended from office amid allegations of mismanagement. Her party,
Pheu Thai, has come under fire after a leaked recording revealed her making
informal and overly personal remarks to Hun Sen during the height of the
crisis. Critics accused her of compromising Thailand’s national interest due to
her family’s long-standing ties with the Cambodian leadership.
Meanwhile, Thailand’s caretaker Prime Minister Phumtham
Wechayachai has urged restraint, stating there has been no formal declaration
of war and the conflict has not yet spread to other provinces. He insisted
fighting must stop before any negotiations can begin.
Cambodia has taken the issue to the international stage,
calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and accusing
Thailand of “unprovoked military aggression.” In contrast, Thailand has refused
Cambodia’s earlier request to resolve the border issue through the
International Court of Justice (ICJ), citing non-recognition of the court's
jurisdiction.
International mediation appears unlikely. ASEAN, the
10-member Southeast Asian regional bloc chaired this year by Malaysia’s Prime
Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has urged both countries to de-escalate. But ASEAN’s
traditional non-interference policy limits its role in conflict resolution.
According to regional expert Tita Sanglee, “ASEAN is unlikely to mediate, nor
is it structured to do so.”
Some believe China may play a mediating role, given its
significant economic influence over both Cambodia and Thailand. However, its
closer alignment with Cambodia could cause hesitation in Bangkok and other
neighboring countries already wary of Beijing's regional dominance.
As of now, hopes for a quick resolution appear dim. With
national pride, political stakes, and historical grievances at play, both
Thailand and Cambodia seem entrenched in a dangerous standoff. The humanitarian
crisis deepens by the day, with tens of thousands displaced and a growing list
of casualties. Without immediate international intervention or restraint from
both governments, Southeast Asia risks a destabilizing conflict at a time when
regional unity is needed most.
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